World · Open for opinions
Will the 10-year US Treasury yield exceed 5% by December 31, 2026?
In October 2026, US Treasury bond yields reached levels not seen in nearly two decades after the Fed unanimously raised interest… 76 opinions, 55% No
- Yes — 45%
- No — 55%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 76 opinions
Resolution rules
In October 2026, US Treasury bond yields reached levels not seen in nearly two decades after the Fed unanimously raised interest rates in September, with Chair Kevin Warsh signaling inflation 'too high for too long'.
Source: www.crestwoodadvisors.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o yield diário do Treasury de 10 anos atingir ou ultrapassar 5,00% em qualquer pregão até 31/12/2026, conforme dados publicados pelo U.S. Department of the Treasury em treasury.gov ou pela plataforma Bloomberg.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 55% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 45 points, a wrong one costs about 55.