World · Open for opinions
Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire by December 3, 2026?
The conflict between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz continues, with the US resuming attacks and Iran reacting. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The conflict between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz continues, with the US resuming attacks and Iran reacting. The war is putting pressure on global energy prices and raising economic concerns in Europe and the Americas.
Source: www.youtube.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Mercado resolve como 'Sim' se um acordo formal de cessar-fogo ou trégua entre EUA e Irã for anunciado oficialmente por representantes dos dois governos ou por mediador reconhecido internacionalmente (ex.: ONU), com confirmação de ao menos duas agências internacionais de notícias (Reuters, AP ou AFP) até 03/12/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.