World · Open for opinions
Will the US and China sign a binding treaty on military artificial intelligence by 10/31/2026?
After the summit between Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington ended without a binding agreement on AI, the market is assessing whether… 70 opinions, 74% No
- Yes — 26%
- No — 74%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 70 opinions
Resolution rules
After the summit between Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington ended without a binding agreement on AI, the market is assessing whether a formal pact will be signed by the end of October.
Source: www.theguardian.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 26/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se os governos dos Estados Unidos e da China formalizarem e assinarem um tratado ou acordo bilateral juridicamente vinculativo regulamentando o uso de IA para fins bélicos ou militares até 31/10/2026, confirmado por comunicados oficiais da Casa Branca ou do Ministério das Relações Exteriores da China. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 74% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 26 points, a wrong one costs about 74.