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Will Iran attempt to formally restrict or block ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026?
Iran's new security chief issued direct threats to Persian Gulf countries on 08/23/2026, and CNN reports discussions about… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Iran's new security chief issued direct threats to Persian Gulf countries on 08/23/2026, and CNN reports discussions about alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting an escalation of tensions in the region.
Source: www.cnn.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução com base em declaração oficial do governo iraniano, relatório da Marinha americana (US NAVCENT), da Organização Marítima Internacional (IMO) ou de agências de notícias de referência (Reuters, AP, CNN) confirmando bloqueio, fechamento parcial ou interdição formal de passagem pelo Estreito de Ormuz. Ameaças verbais sem ação concreta não resolvem como 'Sim'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.