World · Open for opinions
Will the 2-year US Treasury yield exceed 5% by the end of October 2026?
Following the September 2026 inflation report, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, its highest level since… 79 opinions, 62% Yes
- Yes — 62%
- No — 38%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
Following the September 2026 inflation report, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, its highest level since September 29, leaving it just 8 basis points away from the 5% threshold.
Source: www.theguardian.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o rendimento (yield) do US Treasury de 2 anos atingir ou superar 5,0% em qualquer pregão entre 15 e 31 de outubro de 2026, conforme dados oficiais do Departamento do Tesouro americano (fiscaldata.treasury.gov) ou da plataforma Bloomberg.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 62% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 38 points, a wrong one costs about 62.