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Will the US PCE inflation index be below 3% year-over-year in the reading for September 2026?
The PCE inflation indicator remains elevated in the US, leading Fed Chair Warsh to signal possible interest rate hikes. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The PCE inflation indicator remains elevated in the US, leading Fed Chair Warsh to signal possible interest rate hikes. The trajectory of PCE in upcoming readings will be decisive for US monetary policy.
Source: apnews.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido com base no dado oficial do índice de preços PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) em variação anual, divulgado pelo Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dos EUA referente a setembro de 2026. Mercado resolve 'Sim' se o PCE anual for inferior a 3,0%; caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.