World · Open for opinions
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at its December 2026 meeting?
Analysis from October 27, 2026 indicates that, were it not for the political pressure of the midterm elections, the Fed could have… 87 opinions, 52% No
- Yes — 48%
- No — 52%
Deadline: December 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 87 opinions
Resolution rules
Analysis from October 27, 2026 indicates that, were it not for the political pressure of the midterm elections, the Fed could have raised interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points to curb inflation. With the elections concluded in November, the central bank will have more freedom to act in December.
Source: realeconomy.rsmus.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução baseada na decisão oficial do FOMC divulgada ao final da reunião de política monetária de dezembro de 2026. Fonte primária: comunicado oficial do Federal Reserve (federalreserve.gov). Mercado resolve 'Sim' se a taxa dos fed funds for elevada acima de 4,00%.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 52% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 48 points, a wrong one costs about 52.