World · Open for opinions
Will the US economy grow by more than 3% (annualized rate) in the fourth quarter of 2026?
US GDP grew 3.4% in Q3 2026, driven by consumer spending (+3.8%) and business investment in AI (+12.7%). 87 opinions, 51% Yes
- Yes — 51%
- No — 49%
Deadline: March 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 87 opinions
Resolution rules
US GDP grew 3.4% in Q3 2026, driven by consumer spending (+3.8%) and business investment in AI (+12.7%). Economists warn that high inflation and falling real income could slow the pace in the next quarter.
Source: www.theguardian.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se a estimativa preliminar (advance estimate) do PIB dos EUA referente ao Q4 2026, divulgada pelo Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov), indicar crescimento anualizado superior a 3,0%. A primeira divulgação do Q4 ocorre tipicamente em janeiro/fevereiro de 2027.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 51% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 49 points, a wrong one costs about 51.