World · Open for opinions
Will US GDP growth exceed 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 (BEA advance estimate)?
US GDP grew by an average of just over 2% under the Trump administration. 82 opinions, 68% No
- Yes — 32%
- No — 68%
Deadline: February 5, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 82 opinions
Resolution rules
US GDP grew by an average of just over 2% under the Trump administration. With persistent inflation at 3.7%, historically low consumer sentiment, and pressure from the Fed to keep interest rates high, there is uncertainty about whether growth will accelerate significantly in Q4 2026.
Source: www.wsls.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido com base na estimativa prévia (advance estimate) do PIB do quarto trimestre de 2026, divulgada pelo Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dos EUA, prevista para o final de janeiro de 2027. Se a taxa de crescimento anualizada superar 2,5%, resolve 'Sim'; caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 68% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 32 points, a wrong one costs about 68.